How long will Lebanon will play Russian roulette

The assassination of Pierre Gemayel comes as an ominous warning sign for the only democratic state in the Arab world. This high profile killing adds to the list of assassination victims including former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and MP Gebran Tueni and a couple of prominent anti-Syrian journalists. The brutal murder of Pierre Gemayel comes at a time when Lebanon has plunged into deeper political crises.

Pierre Gemayel was an outspoken critic of Syrian influence over Lebanon, was a member of the Christian Phalange Party and industry minister. The son of former President Amin Gemayel, Pierre was born in 1972. A lawyer and the youngest MP in the Lebanese Parliament, Gemayel was first elected to the legislature in 2000 and was re-elected in 2005. Many speculating his killing is a remainder of overwhelming Syrian influence over the politics of Lebanon. While the international community condemns the killing the reasons behind such acts have deeper political motives.

Parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri said Tuesday that Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's proposal to form a national unity government is the only solution to end the increasing political chaos gripping the country. The Sunnis supporting Hariri’s son Saad Hariri is strongly linked with the other parties in the government but Shiites are gathering under the Hezbollah camp to foil their opponents. The pro-Syrian Hezbollah is likely to reject the offer. Furthermore the resignation of six ministers from Hezbollah and its allies have not done any good for the dying democratic process in Lebanon. The killing has now thwarted any possibilities of re-establishment of “unity government”

Adding to the confusion Damascus has denied its involvement. George Jabbour, a Syrian parliamentarian told news agencies Syria has no intention to destabilize the region. A viable government in Lebanon and a peaceful Iraq is what this isolated country wants. Most Lebanese, no doubt will reject such claims as strong evidence shows Syrian involvement in the previous killing though they have kept on denying.

Hezbollah today holds the key to solve the deepening political crisis. Their overwhelming support among the general people mostly Shiites have given them an unwritten advantage. The abduction of corporal Shalom resulting into a war was fought valiantly by them against a towering Israeli army which no doubt has increased their popularity. The eventful war in July this year ended with the Hezbollah claiming a “holy victory” and Israel’s moral standpoint regarding the war badly damaged. A strong government was likely to be formed as the Syrian forces were withdrawn from South Lebanon after thirty years of occupation and a settlement with Israel. But the resignation of Shiite ministers representing the “unity government” after weeks of negotiations added insult to a seemingly impossible task of maintaining peace in Lebanon. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah declaration of the ousting of Western-backed government of Fouad Siniora to be replaced by a “clean” cabinet has brought an inevitable standoff to unity efforts.




Over the years, Israel, Syria, Iran and the United States have become key components in shaping politics in Lebanon. Israel eyes on total demolition of Hezbollah which would ensure their monstrous presence in the Middle East ever so strongly. Iran on the other hand is a key ally to Hezbollah who won heart of Lebanese people through goodwill and disparaging Zionist motives. Neither Israel nor the United States want a stable Middle East that will jeopardize their interests. The July War was not condemned by the US and their naked support for Zionism was exposed further. US president George Bush openly justified Israel’s military campaign to demolish a Shiite group that enjoys warmer ties with Iran. But the Bush administration has recently experienced a drubbing in the mid-term elections and immediately offered peace talks with Syria and Iran who up until now were the “axis of evil” in the eyes of Bush administration. This change of policy towards the neighbors with whom Lebanon had strong cultural and historical ties may have dampened Israel’s motives against the Hezbollah. A volatile Lebanon will only enhance Israel’s chances of overcoming their deadliest enemy since Yassir Arafat and Saddam Hussein and push further the chances of locking horns with Iran.



The world wide condemnation of Syria will only benefit Israel. Interestingly, Lebanon is the possible loophole that will champion their Zionist cause against Iran and Syria and turn Palestine into a worsened colonial ghetto according to their “road-map”. This unwanted murder of a anti-Syrian politician could take the country back to it’s blood-stained past rife with civil wars. Onus is now on Lebanon and the statesmanship of the men in charge. Will the politicians be able to patch up their own differences and try to build on a prosperous future? Or the disbelief and manacles of distrust gathered in the different camps will prevail? Or the killings of opposition politicians will go on unabated wallop Lebanon in the end? The answer lies within the country, not in the hands West or the United States and definitely not in Syria. The Russian roulette which has started must be brought to a halt or else sworn enemies of the Arab people will triumph in devouring yet another victim.